In an answer to question "What lens characteristics are important in astrophotography?" there was mentioned "If the temperature changes drastically, you may need to refocus as different materials in the lens will expand and contract at different rates." But the accepted answer to "How does one focus in very dark conditions?" suggests a tape marking on lens, and wouldn't that turn out to be useless when temperature drops at night?
Is it possible to estimate the focus shift beforehand, when focus was first found in 5 Celsius degrees in the evening and then at night the temperature drops to -10 Celsius degrees? How would I calculate, or estimate, the focus shift between these temperatures?
On the other hand, is it likely that 15 Celsius degrees (27 F) change in temperature really does shift focus so much that I'd need to re-focus? How drastic change in temperature makes refocusing typically necessary?
In my case it is a small size dslr-like camera with a 14mm lens that has somewhat large front element and the lens weighs more than the camera body. And focus would be at infinity for stars.