For the same FOV and f-stop, will total luminous flux increase linearly with sensor area?
Yes, total luminous flux will increase. But photography doesn't measure exposure or brightness¹ using total luminous flux. It bases exposure on light per unit area.
I.e., for the same FOV and f-stop, would the large-sensor camera only need 1/2 the exposure time to achieve the same EV as the small-sensor camera?
No. This is because, by definition, EV, or Exposure Value, is a combination of equivalent f-numbers (Av for aperture value) and exposure times (Tv for time value) that produce the same amount of exposure per unit area.²
Again, the entire concept of Exposure Value is based on light per unit area.
It's usually assumed, unless explicitly indicated otherwise, that EV = EV100.
For instance, some of the combinations for EV9 (EV1009) are f/1 @ 1/500, f/1.4 @ 1/250, f/2 @ 1/125, f/2.8 @ 1/60, f/4 @ 1/30, and so on. Taking it into the 1/3 stop scale, f/2.2 @ 1/160 and f/2.5 @ 1/200 are also EV9.
Likewise, EV2009 are combinations of f-number and Tv that are one stop dimmer (i.e. half as much light is allowed to enter the camera): f/1 @ 1/1000, f/1.4 @ 1/500, f/2 @ 1/250, and so on.
The same combinations of Av and Tv for EV9 are the combinations for EV20010. Because ISO 200 is one stop more sensitive (film) or amplified one stop more (digital) than ISO 100, then EV200 = EV100 + 1.
Since ISO 800 is three stops more sensitive/amplified than ISO 100, then EV800 = EV100 + 3. That is, combinations of Av and Tv that are EV9 would be combinations of EV80012.
Notice that if the scene illuminance is constant, higher EVs allow less light into the camera, not more. What we tend to think of as "bright" EVs, such as EV16 that is approximately equal to the "sunny 16" rule of thumb actually allow less light into the camera with a scene of constant light than what we tend to think of as "dim" EVs, such as EV8 as is often used for night sports under artificial lighting. Lower EVs are brighter¹ Tv/Av combinations used to compensate for dimmer scenes. Higher EVs are dimmer Tv/Av combinations used to compensate for brighter scenes.
Strictly speaking, Exposure Value is not a measure of light intensity, though today it is often misused in that way. When someone says something like "the scene is EV9", what they are really saying is that the scene is, on average, a particular brightness level such that it will be "properly" exposed (whatever that is) using any combination of Tv, Av, and ISO that equals EV9.
This will be more true of a scene with the same overall general brightness, like a city park under overcast skies at mid-day, than a scene with stark differences in brightness levels from one part to another, like a cityscape at night that is mostly very dark with small areas of bright lights and small bright areas illuminated by lights. In the second case, if one were to use an incident light meter and expose based on the average overall light level of the scene, the image would be grossly overexposed with the very dark areas of the scene rendered as medium bright ("18% gray" if we were shooting in B&W) and the specular highlights and other small areas of the scene that are brightly lit would be completely blown out.
So let's suppose you're in a low-light situation, and are deciding what shutter speed you need to choose to to acheive (sic) a certain picture quality—in particular, to keep S:N above a certain level.
Earlier in your question you are concerned with maintaining the same exposure. Now you want the same SNR? The two are not the same thing. In fact, the difference between the two is why larger sensors perform better in low light than smaller sensors.
For simplicity, let's assume the two cameras have the same resolution. Thus the camera with double the sensor size will have double the pixel size, and thus gather double the light per pixel.
True. (If one acknowledges that sensors do not have pixels, they have photosites or sensels. Only recorded digital images and the mediums that display them have pixels.)
Hence a camera with double the sensor size will have approximately double the sensitivity, and will only need approximately half the exposure time [or would it be 1/sqrt(2) the exposure time, since S:N varies as sqrt(signal)?] of the smaller-sensor camera to achieve the same low-light performance.
What you miss here is that sensors with larger photosites (a/k/a pixels (sic) or sensels) don't use the same amount of analog amplification to be rated at the same ISO sensitivity. If the resolution of both sensors is the same, then the photosites of the larger sensor are twice as large as the photosites on the smaller sensor. Reducing the amplification allows higher well values for larger photosites before highlights are clipped, thus giving greater dynamic range. Increasing the size of photosites also reduces the variability from one photosite to the next due to the random distribution of photons within a light field. The larger the area of each photosite, the more this Poisson distribution noise is averaged.
"S:N varies as sqrt(signal)" is only true for the noise attributable to the random distribution of photons within a light field, sometimes called shot noise or Poisson distribution noise. Electronic noise and dark energy added by a camera do not vary by the square root of the signal, but rather remain fairly constant for any particular set of environmental conditions, primarily temperature of the sensor and circuitry, regardless of the signal level resulting from photons falling on the sensor. At lower ISO and brighter exposure the primary source of noise is the camera's electronics. At higher ISO and dimmer exposure the primary source of noise is shot noise.
A larger sensor isn't more sensitive at the same ISO, it's amplified less than the smaller sensor for the same ISO setting. If the total number of photons collected are the same, lower analog amplification means lower voltages are fed into the ADC and the numbers that come out the other side of the ADC are lower for the larger sensor. Due to the lower analog amplification, the larger sensor needs twice as much light energy falling on it to end up with the same brightness¹ level at the ADC.
Thus, for the same exposure (shutter speed), each pixel in the larger-sensor camera is picking up the same proportion of the image as in the small-sensor camera, but is getting twice as much light for that same sub-image. With the same resolution, each pixel is responsible for the same percentage of the image, regardless of the sensor size. I.e., if you want to compare across different format sizes, what matters isn't light per unit sensor area, it's total light per total image.
In a sense, you are correct, but that's not how it works out in practice because (digital) camera makers and the film chemists before them chose to create a system of f-numbers and film sensitivity in a way that accommodates using the same numbers for aperture, as a ratio between focal length and entrance pupil diameter, that holds the same amount of light per unit area regardless of format size. ISO in a digital camera isn't an absolute, it's a calibrated number designed to allow the same overall image brightness for the same combination of f-number, exposure time, and ISO, regardless of the format size. This follows directly the way that the EV system was created for films of various areal sizes and lesnes of various focal lengths.
To make the numbers, some of which are based on √2 and others which are based on the log2(√2) easier to deal with, let's assume for a moment that the larger sensor is twice the linear size and four times the areal size of the smaller one.
If your goal is to use the larger sensor to produce an image with the same SNR of the smaller sensor, you would halve the exposure time. But to make the image equally bright¹ at the ADC, you would also need to double the ISO. Thus, you are giving away the advantage of the larger sensor's ability to perform better than the smaller one in low light in exchange for a shorter exposure time. There are cases where this would be appropriate, such as when camera or subject motion come into play.
Luminous flux per unit area would only be the relevant metric if people printed out or viewed their photos at a size in proportion to the size of the sensor used to take them."
Have you ever used an enlarger in a wet darkroom? We "cheat" in the darkroom by using more light to print an 11x14 from the same negative than we use to print a 5x7. Likewise, assuming they are both calibrated to the same cd/m² (nits), a 32" monitor will allow more total energy to pass through the panel and be emitted from the face of the panel to display the same photo on it's full screen than a 24" monitor would. Everything in the chain between an actual scene and a viewed photograph is based upon light per unit area!
In determining shutter speed, what matters is the total luminous flux on the sensor..."
... multiplied by the analog amplification of the signal generated.
If a 4X larger sensor amplifies half as much as a smaller sensor, then the larger sensor needs to catch 4X as many photons to wind up with the same signal at the ADC, where analog voltages are converted to digitized numbers.
1/4 x 4/1 = 1
Thus, to get the same exposure, one must use the same Ev regardless of format size.
¹ Brightness, as the term is used in photography to indicate relative values between the storage (digital file or negative) or display (print or monitor) medium's maximum and minimum possible values and not as is defined when talking about direct human perception of a primary light source, for which a photograph is but a less than perfect representation.
² Technically, it should be noted as Ev to indicate that it is a logarithmic scale. See the EXIF section of CIPA 2016 and applicable ASA, ANSI, and ISO Standards. But EV has been commonly used for quite a while.